This is my second revision to this blog. I first posted this blog after the Scottish referendum; and then updated it just before the general election. Back then I was concerned about the possibility of a minority Conservative government backed by UKIP calling a referedum on EU membership. I was wrong about the Conservatives being in a minority, but we are now looking at an in/out referendum on EU membership in 2017 and with it the possibility of the UK leaving the EU, the so called Brexit.

This vote would be a much closer contest than Scottish independence (which in the end was unexpectedly tight). Currently most opinion polls have a majority in favour of staying but some polls have a majority in favour of leaving and the polls have up to 20% of voters uncommitted [1]. Support for staying in may improve if David Cameron secures concessions as part of a renegotiation of the UK’s membership, while most businesses will actively lobby...

My previous post touched on how asset managers could be exposed to 3rd party misselling under the FSA’s PS07/11 on provider / distributor responsibilities [1] which places an onus on product providers to ensure their products are suitable for target markets and that marketing literature and other sales support is sufficient for customers and their advisers to understand risks involved. I think PS07/11 could now become a critical issue for life insurers as it may expose them to misselling liabilities in respect of enhanced transfers values (ETVs).

By way of background, ETV exercises were often undertaken by employers to reduce pension scheme liabilities or reduce their exposure to pension scheme risks. They typically involved deferred members who had left employment and were no longer accruing benefits but had still to reach retirement age. These were given incentives to transfer their benefits to a personal pension, thereby extinguishing the scheme’s liability. The...

Invesco’s recent £18m FCA fine [1] has highlighted the conduct risks facing asset managers, but conduct risks are just a subset of a wide range of operational risks run by asset managers. Could these make an asset manager insolvent ? and if so, what would be the impact on their clients such as insurers and pension funds ?

The £18m is one of the largest ever levied by the FCA, but it is not that significant in the context of the Invesco group, which had equity of just under $9bn (/ £5.45bn) at 31/12/2013 [2] i.e. the fine only amounted to 0.4% of group equity. It is unlikely the FCA would levy a fine that would push an asset manager into insolvency, but what is interesting about the fine is the failings that lead to. Invesco failed to communicate changes in risk profile of funds it managed to investors. This failure exposed it to compensation claims, but in this instance Invesco got off lightly with investor compensation of only £5m.

Other...

Apologies if this post is a bit belated as I am sure most risk functions will now have Ebola on their radar in light of the recent outbreak in West Africa. As ever the WHO's Global Oubreak Alert and Response Network is providing updates on the situation:

http://www.who.int/csr/don/en/

Some key facts about Ebola:

• It has a high case fatality rate - up to 90% compared to 60% for the H5N1 strain of bird flu;
• It can be highly infectious between people (unlike H5N1 currently); and
• It has an average incubation period of nearly 2 weeks (vs.2-17 days for 5N1) between infection and symptoms emerging, creating uncertainty as to how far the disease as spread.

What is worrying about the current outbreak is that previous outbreaks have generally occurred in remoter parts of DR Congo and Uganda, this outbreak has reached Conakry, the capital of Guinea, with a population of 2m people and airport...