Crystal Risk Consulting : Independent Actuarial & Risk Management Consultancy
Emerging Risks Blog
New Year predictions #3 – How might Brexit pan out ?

0 comments

Patrick Kelliher

OK, we are well into the new year, but I have had to re-write this blog twice in this fortnight: the first time when Theresa May announced last week that the UK will be leaving the single market, and now after the Supreme Court ruled yesterday that Parliament must vote on Article 50. I will go out on a limb and venture that yesterday’s judgement doesn’t change anything – the House of Commons will back the government and, despite its anti-Brexit sentiments, the House of Lords will shy away from a constitutional crisis by blocking this. The one major “fly in the ointment” was if the Scottish parliament was given a veto but this hasn’t happened.

Last week’s rejection of the single market is significant however. It has removed one possible path for how Brexit may pan out, but unfortunately the path with the least disruption to trade. The UK government is still keen to have a free trade pact with Europe but whether they will get it is another...

New Year predictions #2 – Grexit or the Greenback ?

0 comments

Patrick Kelliher

I have been meaning to write on Greece for some time now. In some ways, Grexit seems old hat compared to the risks posed by Brexit, Trump and China’s debt bubble, but while there may be less column inches devoted to the stand-off between Greece and its creditors, the threat that this could spill over into a disorderly default by Greece remains. Last month, creditors suspended short term debt relief for Greece after the Syrzia government used higher than expected tax revenues to give pensioners a Christmas bonus and defer VAT increases on islands at the forefront of the Syrian refugee crisis [1].

Personally, I think the troika of the IMF, EU and ECB should have given Greece a break. For one thing Greece has had to bear a disproportionate burden from the influx of Syrian refugees. To criticise VAT relief for the main islands affected is churlish. German talk about solidarity and sharing the burden of refugees ring hollow in light of this begrudgery.

More importantly,...

New Year predictions #1 – King Don v the Dragon

0 comments

Patrick Kelliher

As Yoggi Berra may have said, predictions are always difficult, particularly about the future, but to start they year, I thought I would highlight a few scenarios which may or may not arise in 2017, but which are worth considering.

The first follows on from the election of Donald Trump on a protectionist platform. While he has flitted between Democrats and Republicans, and flip-flopped between a wide range of opinions, one of the few things Trump has been consistent about is his aversion to free trade and his belief that other countries are getting the upper hand on the US on trade.

So while many commentators expect Trump to renege on promises he made during the election, I don’t think he will pull back from imposing protectionist measures. Already, car makers like Ford are feeling the brunt of his “bully pulpit” when it comes to moving jobs to Mexico. For what it’s worth I think he will build his wall on the southern border, even if it is a fence...

Home About Us Our Services Papers & Articles Links Emerging Risks Blog Contact Us
Crystal Risk Consulting Limited
Sitemap
Website Design & Hosting
by Edinburgh Websites
Crystal Risk Consulting Limited
Crystal Risk Consulting Ltd Edinburgh : Bookmark & Share