Following on from the shock of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine last February, I have been doing some more thinking about what geo-political shocks might arise in 2023.

In descending order of importance, potential shocks are:

1. China v Taiwan - I think it highly unlikely that China will try to invade Taiwan itself. This would require an amphibious assault on a par with, if not bigger than, D-Day by an army that hasn't fought a war in over 40 years, let alone staged such a complex operation. However, China could try invade the islands of Matsu and Quemoy near its coast, or worse impose a blockade on Taiwan. The latter would probably draw in the US in a high stakes game of brinkmanship, and have profound impacts on the global economy which is reliant on Taiwan's sophisticated microchips, and financial markets such as US corporate bonds where Taiwanese institutions are key investors.

2. Israel v Iran - this has been bubbling...