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Emerging Risks Blog
The Trump Shock


Patrick Kelliher

I write this just after the second presidential debate between Donal Trump and Hilary Clinton. With sordid details emerging of Trump’s attitude to women, his odds of winning have drifted out from 6/4 to 4/1 [1]. However, I don’t think Trump is out of the race yet. I think we will see more revelations about Hilary Clinton’s private e-mails which could yet turn the race on its head. I also think polls understate his vote as he is more popular with elderly voters who are more likely to vote on the 8th November. We could still see a shock win for Trump.

I have therefore been trying to think what risks President Trump may trigger. It is probably fair to say that his election will lead to increased US protectionism. TTIP and TPP will be dead in the water (if they are not already!). NAFTA could be scrapped, with adverse consequences for Mexico and Canada – as well as the US. As it takes a tougher stance on trade, there is a real risk of retaliatory tariffs and...

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