Crystal Risk Consulting : Independent Actuarial & Risk Management Consultancy
Emerging Risks Blog
UK political risk - it hasn't gone away you know....

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Patrick Kelliher

This is my second revision to this blog. I first posted this blog after the Scottish referendum; and then updated it just before the general election. Back then I was concerned about the possibility of a minority Conservative government backed by UKIP calling a referedum on EU membership. I was wrong about the Conservatives being in a minority, but we are now looking at an in/out referendum on EU membership in 2017 and with it the possibility of the UK leaving the EU, the so called Brexit.

This vote would be a much closer contest than Scottish independence (which in the end was unexpectedly tight). Currently most opinion polls have a majority in favour of staying but some polls have a majority in favour of leaving and the polls have up to 20% of voters uncommitted [1]. Support for staying in may improve if David Cameron secures concessions as part of a renegotiation of the UK’s membership, while most businesses will actively lobby...

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