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Emerging Risks Blog
Looking back at 2017, looking forward to 2018

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Patrick Kelliher

I have been meaning for some time to post a blog on how the risks I called last year matched up with reality. I appreciate it’s a bit late in the day but I would cite work commitments and the fact that events continue to develop. As that old Chinese curse goes, we live in interesting times.

Speaking of China, the first risk I called out was a trade war between China and the US [1]. Thankfully this has not come to fruition, partly because the US needed Chinese help to put pressure on North Korea, but this is still a live issue. There have been American grumbles about sanctions busting by Chinese companies, while attempts to cut Chinese companies with ties to North Korea off from the US dominated global financial systems were only rebuffed by China applying similar pressure to US firms with operations in China. It may be that we are in a “phoney war” phase just now but this could get hot.

As it is, US trade relations with the EU are going through a rocky...

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