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Emerging Risks Blog
Geopolitical Risk – a question of when rather than if?


Patrick Kelliher

Living in the UK, it’s easy to get wound up in the chaos of Brexit, but the possibility of a hard Brexit is just one of many geopolitical risks faced just now. Broadly heading east to west:

Spain – while things seem to have gone quiet in Catalonia, the fact remains that a greater proportionate of its electorate voted for independence than the proportion of the UK electorate voted for Brexit, even though opponents boycotted the vote [1]. The prosecution of Catalan politicians behind the vote is likely to exacerbate tensions, as will the emergence of the right-wing Vox party vehemently opposed to Catalan self-determination. While the UK faces the prospect of a break up with the possibility of a second referendum on Scottish independence and/or a border poll in Northern Ireland, it is not the only one that faces the threat of secession.

Italy – while Matteo Salvini may have recently been outmanoeuvred out of power, he is...

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