I have been meaning to write on Greece for some time now. In some ways, Grexit seems old hat compared to the risks posed by Brexit, Trump and China’s debt bubble, but while there may be less column inches devoted to the stand-off between Greece and its creditors, the threat that this could spill over into a disorderly default by Greece remains. Last month, creditors suspended short term debt relief for Greece after the Syrzia government used higher than expected tax revenues to give pensioners a Christmas bonus and defer VAT increases on islands at the forefront of the Syrian refugee crisis [1].

Personally, I think the troika of the IMF, EU and ECB should have given Greece a break. For one thing Greece has had to bear a disproportionate burden from the influx of Syrian refugees. To criticise VAT relief for the main islands affected is churlish. German talk about solidarity and sharing the burden of refugees ring hollow in light of this begrudgery.

More importantly,...

As Yoggi Berra may have said, predictions are always difficult, particularly about the future, but to start they year, I thought I would highlight a few scenarios which may or may not arise in 2017, but which are worth considering.

The first follows on from the election of Donald Trump on a protectionist platform. While he has flitted between Democrats and Republicans, and flip-flopped between a wide range of opinions, one of the few things Trump has been consistent about is his aversion to free trade and his belief that other countries are getting the upper hand on the US on trade.

So while many commentators expect Trump to renege on promises he made during the election, I don’t think he will pull back from imposing protectionist measures. Already, car makers like Ford are feeling the brunt of his “bully pulpit” when it comes to moving jobs to Mexico. For what it’s worth I think he will build his wall on the southern border, even if it is a fence...

I write this just after the second presidential debate between Donal Trump and Hilary Clinton. With sordid details emerging of Trump’s attitude to women, his odds of winning have drifted out from 6/4 to 4/1 [1]. However, I don’t think Trump is out of the race yet. I think we will see more revelations about Hilary Clinton’s private e-mails which could yet turn the race on its head. I also think polls understate his vote as he is more popular with elderly voters who are more likely to vote on the 8th November. We could still see a shock win for Trump.

I have therefore been trying to think what risks President Trump may trigger. It is probably fair to say that his election will lead to increased US protectionism. TTIP and TPP will be dead in the water (if they are not already!). NAFTA could be scrapped, with adverse consequences for Mexico and Canada – as well as the US. As it takes a tougher stance on trade, there is a real risk of retaliatory tariffs and...

The announcement of a further £60bn of Quantitative Easing (QE) by the Bank of England (BoE) on Thursday 4th August [1] has been welcomed as A Good Thing, but is it ?

The markets certainly thought so. The FTSE100 has risen by 3.5% since [2]. Bond prices have risen on the back of QE together with £10bn of Corporate Bond purchases also announced.

However the corollary of higher bond prices is lower bond yields. 20-year Gilt yields have fallen by nearly 40bps from 1.65% p.a. on the 3rd August to 1.27% on the 10th August. Index-linked Gilt yields have fallen similarly – the 20-year index-linked Gilt yield has fallen from -1.40% p.a. to -1.70% p.a.[3].

These falls in yields have pushed up the value of defined benefit pension scheme liabilities more than the rise in scheme assets. Hymans Robertson, a leading pensions consultancy, has estimated that the fall in yields has increased pension scheme liabilities by £70bn to £2.4 trillion (compared...