Despite a drop in the SpaceX share price denying him the status of trillionaire, Elon Musk is still the richest man alive. He is also one of the most influential, with over 240m followers on X, the social media platform he owns. But has he over-extended himself? And if so, what does it means for investors of his companies, SpaceX and Tesla, as well as the wider market?

Musk’s prowess as a businessman is undoubted. Having earned $175m from his early involvement in PayPal and its progenitors, he then invested in Tesla and led it to transform the electric vehicle (EV) market. He followed it up by founding SpaceX and making it the leading space firm along with its ubiquitous Starlink satellite communication service. He is now attempting to become a major player in the AI boom with xAI which along with X has been merged in with SpaceX.

However, I fear that Musk’s reputation may be leading to his companies being grossly over-valued. Furthermore, his AI ambitions,...

Amidst all the chaos in the US and the Middle East, it is important to keep an eye on developments elsewhere. One particular pocket of emerging risk comes from Taiwan.

In the short term, a particular point of vulnerability relates to falls in the US dollar against the Taiwanese dollar, and its impact on Taiwanese life insurers. These hold roughly US$700bn in US bonds, mostly corporate bonds [1], accounting for 6-7% of the US corporate bond market [2].

Because the exchange rate of the Taiwanese dollar and US dollar has been broadly stable in the past, a lot of this of the currency risk is unhedged. Even that which is hedged is often done on the basis of rolling 3-month hedges [3], [4]. However, a recent spike in the Taiwanese dollar against its US equivalent has led to currency losses [5]. As a result, Fitch has placed many Taiwanese insurers on downgrade watch [6]. Fitch noted that the insurers should have sufficient capital to withstand a 10% appreciation in the Taiwanese...

Six months ago, I published a blog [1] highlighting some of the risks which may arise on Donald Trump’s accession to power in January. A lot has happened since then. Comparing the risks identified with what has occurred…

1. Tariffs and trade wars - I noted Trump's election promise to levy tariffs of 10-20%, with higher tariffs on China, and that this could raise prices and reduce global growth. Sure enough, on 2^nd April, which he styled “Liberation Day”, Trump imposed a minimum 10% tariff with higher rates for those with large trade surpluses with the US [2]. These were much higher than many had feared, with the effective tariff on imports coming into the US rising from 2% in 2024 to an average of 24% [3].

Back in November, I worried that markets were not pricing in the risks posed by Trump and his tariff plans. This appears to have been borne out with stockmarkets falling sharply after “Liberation...

As the dust settles on the US Presidential election, Donald Trump is now master of all he surveys in US politics. The Republican Party is beholden to him, and through it he controls the Senate and the House of Representatives. This could enable him to push forward radical changes [1], and the Supreme Court is unlikely to get in the way. How will these changes affect the US and the rest of the world? Is the rest of the world ready for the new administration?

I see the following risks emerging from Trump’s election platform and consider these risks below. These can be broadly split in economic and financial risks (#1 - #7), geopolitical risks (#8 - #11) and climate change. Some, such as tariffs and trade wars, or Ukraine and NATO, may be very important in the short term. Others, such as climate change or higher deficits, may be more important in the longer term.

1. Tariffs and trade wars: a key element of Trump’s election campaign...